Just 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
