A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
